A practical reference for the terms used in the Klarenbach Grain Report and Special Crops Report. Written for Prairie producers who market their own grain.
Focus on the price, not the noise. Technical analysis (price-chart only).
Technical analysis studies price itself — trends, structure, and levels on the chart — rather than news or supply-and-demand stories. Klarenbach Research uses technical analysis to generate keep/sell signals.
A sell signal is a price level stated in advance. When price moves through that level, the report changes the call from keep to sell. The level is set before the move, not after.
Basis is the difference between the local cash bid and the relevant futures price. A stronger (less negative) basis means the cash bid sits closer to the futures price.
Price typically moves through four stages: Accumulation (a base after a decline), Markup (the advance), Distribution (the stall at the top), and Decline (the breakdown). The report identifies the stage to guide keep versus sell decisions.
A continuous Saskatchewan cash price series used for special crops. It is not an elevator bid sheet and not a futures price. Levels are dated so the same number can be compared across years.
How the Klarenbach Price Index works
A price area where selling pressure has previously slowed or reversed.
A price area where buying pressure has previously slowed or reversed.
The average price over a set number of periods (for example, 50-day or 200-day). Rising moving averages generally indicate an uptrend; falling moving averages generally indicate a downtrend.
Percentage retracements of a prior price move, commonly used to identify potential support or resistance.
The price offered by a local elevator or buyer for delivery of the physical crop.
The price of a standardized contract traded on an exchange (for example, ICE canola or Minneapolis hard red spring wheat).
The difference between the value of canola oil and meal and the cost of the canola seed. Used as context for canola basis and demand.
The binary recommendation in each crop-specific email: continue holding or begin selling. The report does not specify what percentage of the crop to sell.
Technical analysis studies price itself rather than news. For a producer, it turns chart behaviour into a keep or sell decision.
A sell signal is a price level set in advance. When price moves through that level, the call changes from keep to sell.
No. The reports give the keep/sell signal and the level. How many bushels to move stays your decision.
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