Klarenbach Research case studies

These are selected, dated examples. Past results do not guarantee future results, and marketing decisions remain yours.

Durum Case Study

01

The Challenge

Grain farmers and traders encounter a wide range of news and opinions on commodity prices. Because of personal biases, they may favor information that matches existing beliefs, sometimes overlooking contrary data.

In 2022, the optimism surrounding Durum wheat prices led many farmers to retain their stock, while grain companies maintained long positions.
02

The Solution

Amidst widespread optimism and information overload, we took a different approach. By focusing  on price charts, we sidestepped subjective views. These charts hinted at a potential price drop.

On January 15, 2022, our Durum Wheat Alert adjusted the Sell Signal below $19.60, so we warned our readers about a looming price trend shift.
Durum wheat image representing a successful Klarenbach Research case study signal
03

The Result

In two weeks, Durum wheat prices fell by about $1.40 per bushel after the January 15, 2022 sell signal.

Marketing decisions remain yours. Past results are not a guarantee.
04

The Conclusion

This case study is a dated example of a chart-based Durum sell signal.

Analysis focuses on objective price charts.

Analysis is independent; not tied to any grain buyer or elevator.

Canola Case Study

01

The Challenge

“Trent, we are glad we took your advice and did not sell our Canola.”

In mid-February 2024, the nearby canola futures contract had dropped below $600/t and traded at $580/t. Andy, a grower in eastern Alberta near the Saskatchewan border, called Trent for his opinion on canola. At the time, several analysts and advisors were recommending selling physical canola.
02

The Solution

In previous newsletters, we had identified both the 600 and 580 levels as key levels of interest, anticipating both to act as magnets for the price and areas of potential support.

While the price made a new closing low at 577, our Sentiment turned Neutral, while many others increased their bearishness. 
Durum wheat image representing a successful Klarenbach Research case study signal
03

The Result

Why did we become Neutral while others were bearish?  

Our interpretation of the price chart suggested the $580/t level could bring in buyers and act as support. Price began reversing to the upside during the first week of March and held higher through May 24, 2024.
04

The Conclusion

As of May 24, 2024 the price is trading at 670, adding $90/tonne to Andy’s 680 tonne inventory for a value of $61,200.

CWRS Case Study

01

The Challenge

“Thoughts on selling old and new crop CWRS?”

May 16, 2024: New subscriber J.H. asked for our opinion on selling old and new crop CWRS.
02

The Solution

Our Klarenbach SK Price Index was trading at $8.92/bu.

We looked at our Price Index charts and replied that old and new crop wheat were setting up for a move higher.
Durum wheat image representing a successful Klarenbach Research case study signal
03

The Result

The Index Price pulled back for another day before breaking above the resistance level.
04

The Conclusion

As of May 27, 2024, the series was trading at $9.32/bu, adding 40 cents/bu to unsold inventory.
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