Simple grain sell signals, without following every news story

The three triggers

A simple selling system needs only three triggers, all set before the market gets there:

1. A price target above the market. The level where you sell into strength. Klarenbach calls this a Take-Profit Price Target.
2. A sell signal below the market. A support level marked on the chart in advance. A break below it says the trend has turned down and waiting is costing you. Klarenbach calls this a Bearish Sell Signal.
3. Your cash-flow dates. Input bills, loan and land payments, and contract deliveries. When one comes due, you sell what you need, whatever the chart says.

If price has not reached a trigger, nothing has changed, whatever the headlines say.

Why news makes a poor sell signal

• By the time a story is a headline, the market has usually traded on it.
• News on any given day points both ways. Price is where all of it nets out.
• Most headlines do not move price through a level that matters. The ones that do show up on the chart.

Read the price first and the news second. Focus on the price, not the noise.

Which trigger matters right now

It depends on the trend. In a rising market, with higher highs and higher lows, keep raising the sell signal under each new support and let the price target do the selling. In a falling market, act on the sell signal. The four stages of the market cycle are laid out in how to know when to sell your grain.

A five-minute weekly routine

1. Check each crop's close against your price target and sell signal.
2. If the trend is rising, move the sell signal up under the newest support.
3. Check the cash-flow calendar for the next 60 days.
4. Act if a trigger was hit. Otherwise do nothing.
5. Write down what you did and why.

"They're well versed, brief, only take a minute or two to read and you give an opinion of what you think as well as providing some charts for evidence as to why." Anthony Hopson, farmer, Kindersley, Saskatchewan

What a simple signal cannot do

• It will not sell the exact top. A level gives up some upside in exchange for a decision you can make.
• It will not tell you how many bushels to sell. Cash flow and storage decide that.
• Gaps and limit moves can carry price past a level before you act.

Common questions

What is a simple grain sell signal?

A price level set in advance on the chart, so you know ahead of time what would trigger a sale. Above the market it is a price target. Below the market it is a sell signal that marks where the trend turns down.

Do I need to follow grain market news to know when to sell?

No. Watch whether price reaches the levels you set in advance and whether a cash-flow date is due. News that matters shows up in price.

Where should a sell signal go?

Below a support level on the chart, such as the most recent swing low in an uptrend, so a break means the trend has actually changed. Price targets go at resistance above the market.

How often should I check my sell signals?

Once a week is enough for most farms, plus a quick check after a large move. The point is to avoid watching every tick.

Where Klarenbach fits

The Klarenbach Grain Report and Special Crops Report state the price target or sell signal for each crop in advance, with a short video, a text summary and charts, for wheat, canola, durum, barley, oats, corn, soybeans, flax, peas, lentils, chickpeas, canaryseed and mustard. Independent, no commissions, and marketing decisions remain yours. $157.50 a month or $1,575 a year, CAD plus tax, with a free 30-day trial. Start the trial.