What Happens When China's Tariff Break on Canola Meal and Peas Ends Dec. 31?

Headshot of Trent Klarenbach, founder of Klarenbach Research
Trent Klarenbach
October 12, 2026
Canola field in bloom, Klarenbach Grain Report
October 12, 2026
China's suspension of its 100% tariffs on Canadian canola meal and peas runs out on December 31, 2026, and Beijing hasn't said whether it will extend it. More than $2 billion a year in Canadian exports is riding on the answer. A signal could come around the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19.

By Trent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAg, founder and lead analyst, Klarenbach Research

The tariff break has an end date

In March 2025, China put 100% tariffs on Canadian canola oil, canola meal and peas, plus 25% tariffs on some pork and seafood. After Prime Minister Mark Carney met President Xi Jinping in January 2026, China suspended the 100% tariffs on canola meal and peas, along with the 25% tariffs on lobster and crab, from March 1 through December 31, 2026.

The 100% tariff on canola oil stayed in place. So did the 25% tariffs on pork and most other seafood.

Beijing hasn't said what comes next

Beijing still hasn't said whether it will extend the deal or let the tariffs come back. Unless the arrangement is changed, the suspended tariffs would apply again after December 31.

More than $2 billion a year in Canadian exports of these products is riding on the decision, according to The Globe and Mail. The next big chance for an answer is the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19, where Carney is expected to meet Xi. A Canada-China trade commission meeting expected near the end of October could help set the table.

Why it matters for Prairie peas and canola

Alberta Pulse Growers say Chinese pea imports were slow to start 2026 but turned sharply higher once the tariffs on Canadian peas were removed. This fall, China and India are both in the market for Canadian peas, so a tariff snapback would take one of those two buyers out of the picture.

Canola meal is the part of the crushed seed that goes into livestock feed, and China has been an important market for it. A return to a 100% tariff would make Canadian meal much harder to sell there.

A question to ask before pricing early-2027 delivery

If you're pricing delivery for early 2027, ask your buyer how they're handling the risk that the tariffs come back. It's a fair question to ask before you sign.

What to watch

  • Any word from Beijing on extending, changing or ending the suspension
  • The Canada-China trade commission meeting expected in late October
  • The Carney-Xi meeting at APEC in Shenzhen, November 18 and 19
  • Canola and pea bids for early-2027 delivery

The Grain Report covers canola on its Grain Report canola page, and the Special Crops Report covers peas on its yellow peas page.

Klarenbach Research is independent, takes no commissions and does not tell readers what percentage of their crop to sell.

Originally posted on X: Trent Klarenbach's post on China's canola meal and pea tariffs

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