Key Market Movers to Watch the Week of June 2nd, 2024

Headshot of Trent Klarenbach, founder of Klarenbach Research
Trent Klarenbach
June 20, 2024
A busy commodity trading floor with traders actively engaging, large screens displaying live market data, and a general atmosphere of urgency.
June 20, 2024
This week, there are five key reports to watch that could significantly impact commodity markets. This article tracks crucial events affecting the agriculture industry and shares insights on potential price movements in the coming weeks.

1. Wheat Futures: Russian Crop Challenges

Wheat Futures Remain Volatile

Russian wheat continues to face significant challenges, with crop estimates dropping to between 70 and 80 million tonnes. The situation is worsened by scarce rainfall and temperatures forecasted to be 4-6°C above normal, driving MATIF wheat prices up nearly 20% since May 1.

The introduction of a Russian wheat export ban and India's potential import of 3-5 million metric tonnes of wheat for the first time in six years could further fuel wheat futures.

A parched wheat field under a hot sun, symbolizing the challenges faced by Russian wheat crops due to adverse weather conditions.

2. OPEC+ Meeting on June 2nd

Potential Volatility in Crude Oil Markets

The OPEC+ meeting today is expected to influence crude oil markets significantly. While there are expectations for the extension of the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut to the end of 2024, the failure to make any changes could result in market volatility and potential downward pressure on oil prices.

An oil rig in the ocean during sunset, with the rig's silhouette against the colorful sky and calm sea.

3. USDA Crop Progress Report

Planting Delays and Weather Impacts

The USDA Crop Progress Report, scheduled for release on Monday, June 3rd, is likely to reflect delays in planting due to persistent wet and soggy conditions. Severe thunderstorms, including a derecho, have significantly impacted planting in major agricultural areas. This weather may also affect the first crop condition report of the season.

A farm field with visible waterlogging due to heavy rain, dark storm clouds and lightning in the background, and damaged young crop plants in the foreground, indicating planting delays and severe weather impacts.

4. U.S. Drought Monitor Report

Continued Improvement Expected

The U.S. Drought Monitor, set to be released on Thursday, June 6th, will likely show improvements in drought conditions across major corn and soybean growing areas, thanks to wet weather forecasts extending through mid-June. However, concerns remain about whether drought conditions in Mexico could move north into the Southern Plains.

A map of the United States showing areas affected by drought conditions, with a focus on corn and soybean growing regions.

5. U.S. Employment Report

Potential Interest Rate Cuts

The U.S. Employment Report, to be released on Friday, June 7th, could play a critical role in shaping interest rate decisions. April's employment report showed a gain of 175,000 jobs, the slowest in six months, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 3.9%. A lower-than-expected job number could lead to interest rate cuts, impacting borrowing costs and overall economic demand.

Representatives discussing the U.S. employment report at a conference table.

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